Urea Outlook in 2025: Many opportunities for fluctuations, and the trend depends on policies BY:Cherry
As an important agricultural input, the market price fluctuations of urea are affected by many factors such as supply and demand, policy factors, and seasonal demand.
Review of the urea market in 2024
1. January-February: No contradiction between supply and demand, and small price fluctuations
In January and February 2024, affected by the Spring Festival holiday and the winter agricultural demand off-season, the contradiction between supply and demand in the urea market was not large, and the price fluctuations were relatively small. During this period, the operating rate of urea enterprises remained stable, the market inventory level was moderate, and the overall operation trend was stable.
2. March: Influenced by export policies, demand growth was greater than supply, and futures prices oversold
In March, market sentiment was mostly affected by export policies, and downstream demand for urea grew faster than supply, resulting in oversold futures prices in the short term. However, with the gradual clarification of export policies and the stabilization of market sentiment, urea prices gradually returned to a reasonable range.
3. April-May: Supported by compound fertilizer production, prices rebounded and remained high
In April, with the increase in demand for compound fertilizer and high-nitrogen fertilizer production, the urea market saw a significant rebound. In May, under the mismatch between supply and demand, urea prices continued to rise and remained high. During this period, the operating rate of urea enterprises increased, but market demand was more vigorous, which pushed up prices.
4. une-September: Demand weakened, prices fluctuated and fell
After entering June, with the arrival of the off-season for agricultural demand, the demand for urea market gradually weakened, and prices began to fluctuate and fall. Throughout the third quarter, the demand for urea market continued to be sluggish, and prices continued to hit new lows for the year. During this period, although the operating rate of urea enterprises in some regions declined due to environmental protection policies, the overall supply pressure was still relatively large.
5. October-December: Macroeconomic policies are favorable, and prices fluctuate
At the end of September, macroeconomic policies released favorable news, and the urea market rebounded under the disturbance of export news. However, as the news was falsified, urea prices remained volatile in the fourth quarter. During this period, market demand remained weak, but the favorable macroeconomic policies had a certain boosting effect on market sentiment.
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